WILL DICTATORS GET WHAT THEY WANT?

The answer is “may be” according to previous scenarios in Burma.

The situation in Burma is like moving towards somewhere good or bad. Everyone keeps their eye on the situation to observe what will happen next. Some say it is positive development and some say it is fake transformation. Perhaps it is dictators’ old strategy to break up oppositions’ movements where as it is about to be stronger.

Learning development on following circumstances will clearly indicate truthful situation in Burma.

(1) The situation before and after October 2010 elections

SPDC- State Peace and Development Council led by Than Shwe was the inheritor after SLORC and BSPP. Looking back at the beginning of how dictator Than Shwe seized the power from previous ruler, the closet objectives of tyrant could be spelled out generally. Actually the direction of political situation were aborted where as Burma was about to start appropriate outlook just after 1990 elections.

The head of previous ruler Saw Maung was removed from position with conspiratorial allegations in order to replace with Than Shwe. The main objective here is not to transfer the power to winning party NLD in 1990 elections. This is because Saw Maung said that the junta would transfer power to those who won with majority in the elections.

In January 1993 the regime started so called national convention, most of whose representatives were hand-picked by the regime. With the aim of drafting constitution, the convention was the main background to refuse 1990 election results.

Than shwe created his own hooligan squad called the Union Solidarity and Development Association and Swan Ah Shin (Master of forces) to brazen out people to people attack to replace shooting down innocent demonstrators by the troops. The regime clearly uses that strategy in a number of demonstrations before and after 2003 including in Depeyin where Daw Ang San Suu Kyi and motorcades were ambushed by the authorization of the regime.

Killing innocent students in 1988 put the regime into the wrong path. Worse than this dictators Than Shwe perpetrated killing peaceful Buddhist monks where Buddhism is devoted by majority of people in Burma. Those acts clearly indicate the regime wouldn’t go down the road that might lead to losing the grip on power.

The erroneous notion that adheres deep inside dictators’ mind is that they will be put on trial once they reform Burma into genuine democratic state with appropriate dialogues and ending more than half century long civil war in Burma. Besides the supporters of the regime and its cronies are inseparable from main dictators, which are not to be prosecuted by public.

With regular way of clinging onto the power, the dictators pretend they are doing the right things for the country. In reverse, the regime would like the whole world to see oppositions as destructive elements.

Long prison sentences to 88 students’ leaders mean “NO” to real change in Burma. This is the gesture of coward way by Burmese military dictators to response to the people and international. Coward dictators say nothing officially so that they can steer any direction on any occasion.

In May 2008, the dictators proved their carelessness to Burmese people when cyclone Nargis hit the Irrawaddy delta and southern Rangoon where nearly 140,000 people died and 2.4 million were severely affected. The dictators neglected people’s suffering and ordered to go ahead constitutional referendum because the constitution is the backbone to officially exit military dominated system in Burma.

The look and facade of parliament in Burma is like the style of real democratic state around the world. But legislation is incapable except existing constitution which totally allows existence of totalitarian system.

Without realistic, so called president who has not been elected by the people and advisory board to the president proclaim win-win situation will be erected between oppositions and dictators. But, it can be seen that president hasn’t got appropriate authorization to make change as well as the recommendations of advisory board to the president have not been implemented.

(2) Understanding regime’s short term objectives

As a Burmese, we have experienced in Burmese politics for decades that dictators will cling onto power as long as they can. On the other hand, they must not give up the power not only for themselves but also for their families and cronies because the dictators are lacking confidence on the forgiveness that oppositions offer. Dictators daren’t to deal with after effects that they will encounter if genuine civil government is taken place.

Therefore any kinds of political system that may lead their wrong doings are stripped out for punishment will not be allowed in Burma. So their duty is to generate dictatorial system with different layout. So the regime is right if we look at situations from their point of view.

Consequently, dictators’ long term objective will be to get hold of control over governmental sectors. They understand their duty and they are dutiful on what they have to do.

Examining dictators’ short term objectives can also be witnessed that they are about to get what they want by their regular way of trick to Burmese people and international community.

Two short term objectives dictators are trying to achieve are to clear out economic sanctions on Burma and to take ASEAN chair on 2014.

Whether a small scale of economic sanction on Burma, the regime finds difficulty to control Burmese economy with the way they want as long as sanctions exist. As there are fewer modes left to monopolize domestic economy, dictators are looking broader marketplaces which are obviously not for Burmese people.

The struggle of Burmese people for the living is getting harder after decades of military rules. Simple aim for sanctions to be lifted is a part of keeping dictatorial system in Burma. Dictators have a certain amount of circle of cronies and families that profit from the system. The dictators keep receiving advantages and souvenir from those cronies. In favour of such kind of sphere to regulate in sequence, corruption has to exist in Burma.

Another thing which will make dictators achieve credibility among international arena is to be chair of the ASEAN on 2014. The regime has not come across significant pressure by the ASEAN toward meaningful alteration in Burma. The ASEAN keeps ignore what is really happening in Burma by starting with “constructive engagement” policy and last year it recognized 2010 elections in Burma. At the moment, the ASEAN chair position in 2014 is more than ready to be granted to the regime by the ASEAN.

In order to kill two birds with one stone, the dictators have to make one big effort which is to get on with the United States of America. The regime recognizes that the United States play a key role in international community such as sanctions and preventing nuclear smuggling etc. As ASEAN Chair, a smooth communication with the United States is needed prior to US-ASEAN summit.

Deformed dictators have been trying to accomplish any necessity to keep the regime energetic. The process of visit by US special envoy to Burma was speedy and regimented because regime understand that this has to be done in time. In the same way, representative from the regime went to the Whitehouse in Washington and exchange talk with US officials for further friendliness.

The two main objectives which are to clear out sanctions on Burma and ASEAN chair in 2014 is achievable if opposition are just watching the situation instead of working hard with systematic endeavour. Some inconsequential continuation movement by opposition inside Burma can be found within a small number of NLD member led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The NLD was inactive when Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was in detention. But now NLD is dancing along with the melody that regime create where opposition can make regime dance.

In overseas oppositions, everyone is working hard to see changes in Burma for decades. Practically, such a fruitful situation can’t be seen in Burma because appropriate accomplishment has not been made to reach specific goal. Unspeakably more Burmese opposition are turning into onlookers or hypocrites where it is hard to find the way to demolish dictators in Burma.

There is a remarkable saying in Burmese, “IT IS NOT CHEATER’S FAULT IF SOMEONE HAS BEEN CHEATED FOR THREE TIMES”.