WILL DICTATORS GET WHAT THEY WANT?

The answer is “may be” according to previous scenarios in Burma.

The situation in Burma is like moving towards somewhere good or bad. Everyone keeps their eye on the situation to observe what will happen next. Some say it is positive development and some say it is fake transformation. Perhaps it is dictators’ old strategy to break up oppositions’ movements where as it is about to be stronger.

Learning development on following circumstances will clearly indicate truthful situation in Burma.

(1) The situation before and after October 2010 elections

SPDC- State Peace and Development Council led by Than Shwe was the inheritor after SLORC and BSPP. Looking back at the beginning of how dictator Than Shwe seized the power from previous ruler, the closet objectives of tyrant could be spelled out generally. Actually the direction of political situation were aborted where as Burma was about to start appropriate outlook just after 1990 elections.

The head of previous ruler Saw Maung was removed from position with conspiratorial allegations in order to replace with Than Shwe. The main objective here is not to transfer the power to winning party NLD in 1990 elections. This is because Saw Maung said that the junta would transfer power to those who won with majority in the elections.

In January 1993 the regime started so called national convention, most of whose representatives were hand-picked by the regime. With the aim of drafting constitution, the convention was the main background to refuse 1990 election results.

Than shwe created his own hooligan squad called the Union Solidarity and Development Association and Swan Ah Shin (Master of forces) to brazen out people to people attack to replace shooting down innocent demonstrators by the troops. The regime clearly uses that strategy in a number of demonstrations before and after 2003 including in Depeyin where Daw Ang San Suu Kyi and motorcades were ambushed by the authorization of the regime.

Killing innocent students in 1988 put the regime into the wrong path. Worse than this dictators Than Shwe perpetrated killing peaceful Buddhist monks where Buddhism is devoted by majority of people in Burma. Those acts clearly indicate the regime wouldn’t go down the road that might lead to losing the grip on power.

The erroneous notion that adheres deep inside dictators’ mind is that they will be put on trial once they reform Burma into genuine democratic state with appropriate dialogues and ending more than half century long civil war in Burma. Besides the supporters of the regime and its cronies are inseparable from main dictators, which are not to be prosecuted by public.

With regular way of clinging onto the power, the dictators pretend they are doing the right things for the country. In reverse, the regime would like the whole world to see oppositions as destructive elements.

Long prison sentences to 88 students’ leaders mean “NO” to real change in Burma. This is the gesture of coward way by Burmese military dictators to response to the people and international. Coward dictators say nothing officially so that they can steer any direction on any occasion.

In May 2008, the dictators proved their carelessness to Burmese people when cyclone Nargis hit the Irrawaddy delta and southern Rangoon where nearly 140,000 people died and 2.4 million were severely affected. The dictators neglected people’s suffering and ordered to go ahead constitutional referendum because the constitution is the backbone to officially exit military dominated system in Burma.

The look and facade of parliament in Burma is like the style of real democratic state around the world. But legislation is incapable except existing constitution which totally allows existence of totalitarian system.

Without realistic, so called president who has not been elected by the people and advisory board to the president proclaim win-win situation will be erected between oppositions and dictators. But, it can be seen that president hasn’t got appropriate authorization to make change as well as the recommendations of advisory board to the president have not been implemented.

(2) Understanding regime’s short term objectives

As a Burmese, we have experienced in Burmese politics for decades that dictators will cling onto power as long as they can. On the other hand, they must not give up the power not only for themselves but also for their families and cronies because the dictators are lacking confidence on the forgiveness that oppositions offer. Dictators daren’t to deal with after effects that they will encounter if genuine civil government is taken place.

Therefore any kinds of political system that may lead their wrong doings are stripped out for punishment will not be allowed in Burma. So their duty is to generate dictatorial system with different layout. So the regime is right if we look at situations from their point of view.

Consequently, dictators’ long term objective will be to get hold of control over governmental sectors. They understand their duty and they are dutiful on what they have to do.

Examining dictators’ short term objectives can also be witnessed that they are about to get what they want by their regular way of trick to Burmese people and international community.

Two short term objectives dictators are trying to achieve are to clear out economic sanctions on Burma and to take ASEAN chair on 2014.

Whether a small scale of economic sanction on Burma, the regime finds difficulty to control Burmese economy with the way they want as long as sanctions exist. As there are fewer modes left to monopolize domestic economy, dictators are looking broader marketplaces which are obviously not for Burmese people.

The struggle of Burmese people for the living is getting harder after decades of military rules. Simple aim for sanctions to be lifted is a part of keeping dictatorial system in Burma. Dictators have a certain amount of circle of cronies and families that profit from the system. The dictators keep receiving advantages and souvenir from those cronies. In favour of such kind of sphere to regulate in sequence, corruption has to exist in Burma.

Another thing which will make dictators achieve credibility among international arena is to be chair of the ASEAN on 2014. The regime has not come across significant pressure by the ASEAN toward meaningful alteration in Burma. The ASEAN keeps ignore what is really happening in Burma by starting with “constructive engagement” policy and last year it recognized 2010 elections in Burma. At the moment, the ASEAN chair position in 2014 is more than ready to be granted to the regime by the ASEAN.

In order to kill two birds with one stone, the dictators have to make one big effort which is to get on with the United States of America. The regime recognizes that the United States play a key role in international community such as sanctions and preventing nuclear smuggling etc. As ASEAN Chair, a smooth communication with the United States is needed prior to US-ASEAN summit.

Deformed dictators have been trying to accomplish any necessity to keep the regime energetic. The process of visit by US special envoy to Burma was speedy and regimented because regime understand that this has to be done in time. In the same way, representative from the regime went to the Whitehouse in Washington and exchange talk with US officials for further friendliness.

The two main objectives which are to clear out sanctions on Burma and ASEAN chair in 2014 is achievable if opposition are just watching the situation instead of working hard with systematic endeavour. Some inconsequential continuation movement by opposition inside Burma can be found within a small number of NLD member led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The NLD was inactive when Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was in detention. But now NLD is dancing along with the melody that regime create where opposition can make regime dance.

In overseas oppositions, everyone is working hard to see changes in Burma for decades. Practically, such a fruitful situation can’t be seen in Burma because appropriate accomplishment has not been made to reach specific goal. Unspeakably more Burmese opposition are turning into onlookers or hypocrites where it is hard to find the way to demolish dictators in Burma.

There is a remarkable saying in Burmese, “IT IS NOT CHEATER’S FAULT IF SOMEONE HAS BEEN CHEATED FOR THREE TIMES”.

Burma Freedom: STILL FAR AWAY TO DEMOCRATIC BURMA

Burma Freedom: STILL FAR AWAY TO DEMOCRATIC BURMA

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As we all know, our democratic struggle has been 23 years from 1988 and 49 years (nearly 5 decades or half century) from 1962. Reasonably over two decades is enough to make significant change. But the only obvious thing happens in Burma is the grip of dictators and its cronies to control everything become firmer and stronger. It means our opposition is not in the satisfactory stage unless we create powerful push. But some people might say the situation in Burma has escalated somehow to favourable circumstance that we would like to achieve. But it is not. If we look at the situation from real point of view, we will see truthful situation.

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To find out whether we have winning situation or weakening situation, look at following facts.

- Even though we opposition won majority in 1990 election, we could not implement democratic government. Election results now are out of sight even though we claim that it still exists.

- Oppositions have been helplessly assaulted by thugs of dictators as in 2003 depeyin massacre. It is the same kind of killing the people like shooting in demonstrations in 1988, 2007.

- The problem of depeyin is unsolved, not even COI.

- Students’ leaders were rearrested and sentenced to long prison terms in 2008.

- Cyclone Nargis in 2008, the carelessness of dictators to the people was seen as the worst Burmese villain in the entire world.

- While we have been objecting and suggesting, 2008 constitution was forcibly made out into exploit and unlawfully.

- Full of unfairness or historical bullying could be seen in 2010 elections.

- Than Shwe has gone into hiding and the same practices and procedures are still in use.

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Well, if you look at above things, it shows that everything the dictators want to happen come to happen. Most of our opposition want to happen are not likely to happen. It’s more like it will never happen. For example, to recognize 1990 election results, add and remove of 2008 constitution, free and fair 2010 elections, dialogue with NLD led by Daw Suu and tripartite dialogue. Those things aren’t happened because the way the whole oppositions work is just hypocrisy.

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Noticeably, the whole opposition has not been able to work together though we know that we need to stick and work as one. We have had chances and occasions that we can get through political deadlock in Burma. But we could not grab those opportunities. And the whole opposition is working the same procedures and the same things that we have been doing since we started our struggle. We are not doing not many different things. Everyone knows what Burmese people do for freedom and democracy in Burma. For example, demonstrations, signature campaigns, asking UN for bla bla bla and asking EU for bla bla bla. In reality, none of these are the main mode that we all must do to achieve our goal of democracy. They are just side action we have to do along with the main mode. So, we will not be heading to democratic Burma as long as we are not in the right track. Have you ever though that what we have been doing so far is not even something that makes dissipate the existence of military dictators in Burma.

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At the same time, we seem unaware that the dictators are also making their effort not to lose the power as well as not to be sent to the court for their committed crimes. That is why we are seeing the dictators are still clinging onto power. If you look at international arena, the UNSC and the UN can’t do more than what they have been doing because of using abusive veto power by China and Russia. The ASEAN will never push dictators to the way the people want but to recognize whatever the dictators do. The EU’s policy towards Burma is softening though they extend their sanctions on Burma. They are looking more investment in Burma. India used to show their support to oppositions.

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But now India is doing more investments in Burma to compete with China. Thailand is planning to send refugee in the border and Thai authorities want to have stronger tie with Burma in security and economy. So, these all indication shows that dictators have necessary control to stay in power. In my point of view circumstances in Burma are in favour of dictators and their followers, is because of lack of endeavour by the whole opposition. Our opposition work very few amount of work with unmethodical way while dictators work full time with systematic effort. In the long term, existing circumstances show that our oppositions need to work very very hard with organized and harmonized way.

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The same old routines for Burma’s freedom

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Let's look at opposition organizations in overseas. The first thing people attach the wrong attitude is about “the people inside Burma can only make change the situation in Burma. The people outside the country can’t do for significant change.” I would say this is very wrong ideology.

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Possible way that can occur something change in Burma is by three forces. They are people and organizations inside Burma, people and organizations in the border and people and organizations from over sea countries. If these three forces act as one on specific and prioritized objective with allocated responsibility, this is the time that we can count down for freedom from oppressions by inhumane dictators. Otherwise whatever an organization or someone do something, it is going to be like a drop of water into the sea of sands. That is why we can prove that current situation in Burma is not in favor to our oppositions. Dictators’ grip on power is stronger and stronger.

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If we look at the escalation of military regime, it indicates they don’t need to worry about loosing the power after transforming military rules into civilian control. Even though fraudulent process and obvious ways of cheating are clear to ratify in 2010 elections, we oppositions are unable to send conspirators to the justice. Not recognizing 1990 elections results and no transfer of power, unethical and cheating on unnecessary 2008 constitution and continuing puppet government resulted from sham 2010 elections are not just occasional method. These processes have been used by dictators since after military coup in 1962. The fact is that dictators are trying as much as they can to maintain the power like we are struggling for democracy.

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They will not easily give up where they have to take into account with the safety and security of their family, their relatives and their business partners. As long as we oppositions are unable to reach the same level that can manipulate current situation, dictators will not consider entering to dialogue or any kind of negotiation. To manipulate current situation, oppositions need too many kind of renovation such as all opposition work as one or implementation on a set of main objectives of all of us, which is not someone’s wishful thinking.

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The UN, EU, ASEAN and international governments are unable to interfere in problems in Burma without seeing unified and powerful arrangement in opposition side.

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Working together on the same objectives and to start working collectively is always the first thing. And there is a specific way and mean that we must accept for the sake of freedom in Burma unless otherwise you do not want to get on with it. Although demonstrations, signature campaigns, giving pressure to the UN, EU, ASEAN and international governments are needed to include in new way of working for democracy, they should not be first priority in our work of daily basis for freedom in Burma.

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Solutions

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The specific way and mean that we must work for real change in Burma is something like a systematic way which we will see improvement if we work hard and we will be in the same situation if we work as the same old routines. In the specific way, everyone work for the same objectives + the core financial sector must be formed. At the same time, everyone must contribute exact hours of work for the struggle in daily basis. For example, someone has to give 1-2 hours (at least) work for the struggle daily while he/she is working full time. For the people who are in revolutionary organizations as in border, they have to work full time on our main objectives by all of us which is not on the objectives of their own.

Burma 2010 election: Will NLD and Oppositions create a change

Burma 2010 election: Will NLD and Oppositions create a change

Another round of outrage has taken place after Electoral Commission Law was released on 9th March 2010. Similar situation has been transpired in Burma after students were slaughtered in 1988, after Daw Aung San Suu kyi and motorcade was ambushed in 2003, after the monks were killed in 2007 and after people were neglected in cyclone Nargis. The tempers that embrace the people in all those occasions are exactly the same.

People and international governments reveal their concern and criticism after finding out the contents of unworkable commission law by half-witted dictators. The word “unjust” and” intolerable” are being expressed among oppositions. It is actually bizarre and negligent electoral commission law that will absolutely pave the way toward permanent military rule state. On the other hand, it is predictable outcome that dictators will make this step if someone observes the way and attitude of a group of military dictator adheres in order to get away from the crimes that they have committed.

According to the nature of dictators, they won’t easily relinquish power. Dictators in Burma have already prepared everything to make sure that no opposition is capable to deprive power from them. Look at the tactics that dictators in Burma bring into play after 1988 crackdowns. Dictators use people to crackdown people. Dictators set up a couple of destructive organizations to thwart opposition’s movements. For example, the two horrifying pro-dictator organizations, the union solidarity development association (USDA) and its sister group, Swan Ah Shin (Master of Force) are always ready to be deployed any time, any where to perform whatever dictators wish.

As the dictators have been pursuing their specific goals of transforming Burma into permanent military rule country, they keep maintain following capabilities to make it happen everything that should be done for their own sake.

- Though they know that no one should not be above the law, dictators manipulate judiciary system under their control.
- Almost all of opposition leaders who have full support from the people are to be locked up and if any talented individual turn up, anyone will be taken away from the public.
- As public demonstration is the main strategy of opposition side, dictators have given instructions to clear out any procession that may threaten to their continued existence.
- Dictators ignore international pressure.

Therefore, alterations of current political circumstances depend upon what opposition can make significant move. Right now, ultimatum of the whole opposition is to derecognize 2010 elections and to ask for a dialogue toward national reconciliation. Having general goal of achieving freedom and democracy in Burma in all the opposition organizations will be the same as we have been doing last 21 years. Moreover the pressures by international community including the United Nations do not create significant change from current misleading situations in Burma.

The only thing which will make dictators unleash their grip on power is a unified and systematic move of the whole oppositions inside and outside the country. For example, implementing a call from Member of Parliament Union (MPU) to initiate people’s government by elected representatives in 1990 will be relatively powerful step if it is more than verbal proclamation. Then all the oppositions have to work for it as it is first priority until it comes into practice.
There was similar scenario like it is now after monks led demonstrations were cracked down in 2007. It was National Unity Government (NUG) exposed by exile oppositions. It gave the impression to all as it said to be inclusive of elected representatives in 1990, leaders from ethnic groups and proficient individuals from exile organizations. But the name NUG faded away even before it reached to early stage of foundation.

Here are obvious occurrences within political stalemate in Burma.
Dictators =>>Dictators have the next step after previous steps. (Setting up interim government is possible their next step before 2010 election)
Opposition =>>The next serious step is about to be decided (MPU call for people’s government. NLD inside is going to declare its next plan on 29th March 2010.

Therefore, whether sensible circumstance will emerge between dictators and oppositions depend on the next move of oppositions.

Burma 2010 election: Than Shwe Version of Free and Fair Election (or) 4 cheats strategy

Burma - 2010 Election: Bo Than Shwe Version of Free Fair Election (or) 4 cheats strategy

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"Dogs of the same street bark alike." It is an English proverb which means "People from the same background have the same behaviour." Saw Maung, previous coup leader in 1988 said "We promise you that free and fair general elections would be held as soon as peace and tranquility is restored in the country". Incontestably, 1990 elections were recognized as free and fair elections by international community. Then, Saw Maung disclosed we would transfer power immmediately to winning party. But he didn't do it because election results were not like what they had forecasted. Though he failed to transfer power, he was a lot more transparent dictator compared to Than Shwe, current chief dictator in Burma.

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Now the word "free and fair elections will be held in Burma" is used by Bo Than Shwe again in the end of USDA conference. He also included the word "Elections will be systematically held in 2010 in line with 2008 constitution" when he addressed at War veterans organization last month. If we observe carefully about present situation in Burma, it is undeniable that election in 2010 is not the main priority. Reconciliation process or revising 2008 constitution will be the right way towards democracy in Burma if it is sincere attitude for the people of Burma. Then we all can coordinate for a standard election in 2010 or near future etc. However it is unlikely to happened what it is that should be done in Burma right now. In connection with this, Bo Than Shwe is unmasking himself as cheater because he hasn't even mentioned when election will be held and electoral law will be announced ahead of 2010 elections.

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Than Shwe's 4 cheats strategy

(1) cheat to the whole country

Banning things like internet, listening and watching to the media broadcasted by outside the country are designed to make the people believe in what they say. Though reality are not allowed to publish in their own newspapers, what Than Shwe says "Free and fair elections will be held" has been printed on the head line. Even Burmese people did not receive precaution before cyclone nargis hit dalta area.

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(2) cheat to his colleagues

The only phrase all the dictators in Burma use at all time is "western countries are still attempting to colonize Burma". Therefore we must be strong and protect our country from destructive elements. But the reality is that a lot of dissident military personnel have to be quiet because of factionalism. It is also a kind of brutalization between military personnel. For example, if we look at how Saw Maung was deposed as well as how Khin Nyunt and its intelligent network were ousted by another rival group, we can confirm that military personnel who want democratication process in Burma have to keep quiet.

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(3) cheat to international community

Regualr and routine job that a handful dictators have to do is, disseminating lies to the world in accordant with existing political climate. For example, it can be witnessed in recent episode of freeing prisoners in Burma. Though the UN and international community asked to release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and political prisoners, they didn't do it adequately. As they included very few amount of political prisoners whose release date is about to due, they could still claim that we release political prisoners on demand. But dictators ignore most request made by the UN and international community.

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(4) cheat to himself

It is quite usual that people think what they are doing is right. But for Bo Than Shwe this is difficult function that he has to perform himself as a cheater. To a certain extent, he knows that he is dictators and he is not innocent. The worst thing he has done is to repudiate and refuse to acknowledge Bo Gyoke Aung San and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Then, the deeds to remove Bo Gyoke Aung San pictures from the offices is just insulting entire Burmese people and the country. Then, he promoted himself as he is grand national leader. This is just a cheat and he should know himself that he is the enemy of the state. But, supprisingly he still have supporter who say that “Killings and suppressions are normal there but we have to know the fact,” Samak said. “And Senior Than Shwe practices meditation. He said he prays in the morning … and the country has been in peace and order.”

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Whatever it is, what Bo Than Shwe has done so far is just to imitate previous authoritarians such as Bo Ne Win and Bo Saw Maung. As this is an obvious attitude that exist in almost all of Burmese people, we have to wait and see who's next after Bo Than Shwe.

Comparison between Than Shwe and Rodovan Karadzic

Comparison of Criminal Counts between Rodovan Karadzic and Than Shwe

It is a pretty good idea that Burma Lawyers' Council - BLC is enterprising a project of putting Burmese Dictators into International Criminal Court. The plan is better choice to accomplish than what is currently happening in Burma's politics. At the moment, the situation in Burma is heading towards consenting legitimacy to one of world worst dictatorial regime called SPDC by persuading both dictators and oppositions into 2010 elections. The main conspirator for this scheme to take place in Burma is the USA and its new policy. Even though it is too early to criticize what the outcome will be, voice and choice of opposition has been undermined already. Because this new push led by the United State is absolutely ignored previous occurrences of what have happened. It doesn't take into account 2008 constitution which is a composition of permanent existence of military dictators in Burma. It neglects people's desire towards real freedom. It omits capabilities of opposition groups against ruling dictators.

In reverse, what should be done in Burma in line with current situations, is very slim. Though Burmese dictators are explicit to be sent to ICC, the option has not been favorable by international community. Actually the crimes Burma's dictators have done is not quite different from Omar Hassan Ahmad Al Bashir, President of the Republic of Sudan who was issued warrant of arrest by ICC and Rodovan Karadzic, ex-Bosnian Serb leader. Charges against Sudan president Omar Al Bashir are five counts of crimes against humanity: murder and two counts of war crimes: intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking part in hostilities. Similarly, charges against Serb leader are COUNTS 1 and 2: GENOCIDE, COUNT 3: PERSECUTIONS, COUNTS 4, 5 and 6: EXTERMINATION, MURDER, COUNTS 7 and 8: DEPORTATION, INHUMANE ACTS, COUNTS 9 and 10: TERROR, UNLAWFUL ATTACKS.

"Details of 11 counts against Karadzic"

Therefore, instead of using our energy to criticize 2010 election which will be held by inhumane dictators, it will be more practical to focus on everyone's endeavor to take Bo Than Shwe and his followers into ICC by joining hands with BLC - Burma Lawers' Council.

Will Than Shwe meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi?

Will dogmatic Than Shwe accept Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's proposal for dialogue?

It is sporadic proposal that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has requested to Bo Than Shwe for reconcialation talk. It is really acceptable and the offer should be supported by all people who are striving for democracy in Burma. This is not the first time of request from Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. She suggested similar program since when Khin Nyunt was in power.But if you look back previous scenario of the same offering for dialogue by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, just false hope or short-term solution has been taken place such as indirect talk via their chosen agent like U Aung Kyi who has been appointed to perform anything what Bo Than Shwe wants.

Therefore, whether coming into being of dialogue depend on (1) Bo Than Shwe's personal aims (2) the attitude of high ranking military personnel such as division and state commanders. But, Bo Than Shwe has not been given up to sort out current political deadlock whereas 2010 elections juncture has been well prepared for theirselves. Also, if you do careful observation on Bo Than Shwe's behavior, it can be found that Bo Than Shwe doesn't proclaim "NO" to any request, demand, appeal etc. by the UN, international community or opposition. He behave like he has difficulty with speech to the people or an arrogant dogmatist. It means he doesn't accept or take any suggestion. This might be at all time attitude that he adheres himself until he is forced to relinquish it.

Therefore he would not go for a dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Possibly he will release Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for sometime just before 2010 elections. But it will not be forever freedom for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Joke of the week - Burma

Than Shwe wispered to Than Shwe for dismissal
It is just aftereffect of passing resolutions on Burma Human Rights by the UN special committee on 19 November 2009. SPDC and its representatives might have been taken into account with possible outcomes after UNGA. But they didn't expect the result is worse than what they thought. So, All they did is just their regular course of procedure of condemning the west. As a result of all, Mr Than Shwe, chief dictator was so angry with the situation at UN. Therefore he shouted to Than Shwe, a SPDC's representative at UN that I will sack you when you come back home. So, Than Shwe wispered to Than Shwe that I will sack you before you sack me.